A new reality

I'm supposed to be doing lots of other things right now. But to be honest, I'm too disappointed to focus. A lot of things were lost in electing Trump, including the little faith I had left in the common sense of the electorate after the Brexit vote.  

In an earlier article on Brexit, I already wrote that the Brexit vote was part of a bigger trend which included the rise of populist politicians in Europe and Trump in the US. A new reality is settling in and it will have a huge effect on people but also on market structures.

Leaving personal feelings aside, as well as the effects this election will have on the environment, human rights, the economy and basic human decency, let's take a look at how this election may affect market structure.

Throughout the campaign, Trump was not very clear on policies he would bring in his administration. But he was crystal clear on the fact that he absolutely loathes regulation. He feels regulation is killing business and entrepreneurship. Now, Wall Street never fully jumped on the Trump train but now that his reign is starting they will make lemonade out of this lemon and kill as much regulation as they can. This means Dodd-Frank will be in the cross hairs of Trump and the SEC and CFTC can already plan to cut their budgets.

Now, if US regulation comes under fire, Europe will take another hard look at the European equivalents, MIFID and EMIR. If the trend of populism and isolationism will continue in Europe, we can assume that European regulation will come under heavy scrutiny by newly elected Euro skeptic parties. Combine this with the UK exit and the trend in the US and you can wonder if the European financial industry should become the most regulated market in the world. Don't get me wrong, regulation in essence is a good thing. But if the rest of the world is turning into a 'free for all', having MIFID will be like competing in a swim race with your hands tight to a 50 pound boulder.

So, in the words of the guy who predicted the Cubs winning in 2016 in his 1993 yearbook, you heard it here first: In this new reality, MIFID II might be dead before arrival. 

Agree, stronly disagree or do you predict other effects? Open for discussion in the comments.

Lynx wins Financial Football 2016

Congratulations to the team of Lynx2 for winning the thirteenth edition of our Financial Football Tournament. 

We had another great event with 18 teams participating on the fields of FC Abcoude. 

Out of the 18, 8 proceeded to the quarter finals:

Sponsors Eurex Frankfurt and Euroclear dueled each other in Euroclear's first survival of the qualifying rounds ever. Eurex Frankfurt won this match. On the second field, both Lynx teams battled and after a tie in regular time, it took 19 penalty kicks to declare Lynx2 the winner. On the third field, ABN AMRO fought hard against the London office of Eurex. That office has always been a strong contender and this time as they managed to beat their opponents all the way to the finals. On the fourth field, the so-called "Lucky Losers" battled for the remaining semi-final spot. Lucky losers are the two best third place spots in the three qualifying groups. There Optiver and deGiro2 met each other with a win for Optiver.

Click for the 2016 photos

In the semi-final, Eurex Frankfurt lost against Lynx and Optiver lost against the Eurex UK Office. The final match ended in a tie and the penalty kicks gave the edge to Lynx, a repeat of their result of 2014 where they also won after penalty kicks.

A big thank you to all the participants, referees, caterers, child care professionals for making it a great day and a huge thanks to Euroclear and Eurex for their continued sponsorship of this event. Without all of you, this event would not have grown out into the annual tradition that it is now.

WE HOPE TO SEE YOU ALL NEXT YEAR!